First holiday forecasts promise another year of sales growth

Back-to-school season is barely over, but with the end-of-year peak season closing in fast, the first forecasts for holiday shopping have already appeared — and they portend another year of potential gains as well as challenges.

According to market researcher eMarketer, online sales will grow 16.8% this November and December compared with 2011, a slight uptick from the 16.5% growth rate last year. Holiday sales will total more than $54 billion and represent almost a quarter of annual eCommerce revenues for 2012, eMarketer predicts.

Holiday forecast from eMarketer

Overall retail sales are also poised to grow, with research firm ShopperTrak predicting a year-over-year sales increase of 3.3%. That rate is slightly below 2011, which logged 3.7% growth compared with the prior year.

Both sets of predictions hint that merchants face a challenging, but potentially lucrative environment for the holidays: with overall sales growth falling and online sales growth slowing, merchants will have to work harder than ever to reach shoppers who log on for the convenience, savings and selection they’ve come to expect from the online experience.

In a post over the summer, we recommended merchants begin fine-turning their sites for holiday success. Now, with many merchants rapidly approaching “lock-down” mode for their sites and marketing strategies firmly in place, it’s still worthwhile to tweak plans in order to:

Make the most of whatever shipping discounts are on offer. Free shipping is the top promotion that motivates consumers to buy, but low flat-rate shipping and free upgrades to expedited shipping are also worth promoting.

Showcase any cross-channel capabilities. The ShopperTrak forecast predicts that foot traffic to stores will be up 2.8%, in contrast with last year’s 2.2% drop. Merchants with brick-and-mortar locations should fine-tune campaigns to support both online and offline buying.

Ensure the transition from link to landing page is airtight. Email promotions and paid search placements should lead shoppers to content that delivers on the promise that caused them to click in the first place — ideally offering further opportunities for engagement as well as comprehensive information to power a purchase decision.   Williams-Sonoma’s paid search ad for Le Creuset cookware mentions exclusive offerings and free shipping above a $49 threshold — themes that are repeated on the landing page, which features the shipping offer in a banner at the top of the content area and offers shoppers a link to in-depth content about the Signature Collection on offer.

Paid search placement example from Williams-Sonoma

Landing page example from Williams-Sonoma

For more holiday strategies and consumer trends, be sure to mark your calendars for October 10, when MarketLive will present the results of its 2012 Consumer Shopping Survey, along with trends and tactics to maximize sales. Register for the webinar now — and meantime, let us know — how are you fine-tuning your holiday strategies?

Webinar recap: Three ways to take email to the next level

Last week’s webinar on optimized email presented a range of strategies, but one clear theme emerged: merchants must do more to move beyond the “bast and blatch” mentality and boost relevance of messaging — and doing so needn’t involve complex, resource-intensive processes.

The webinar detailed how garnering a whopping $40.56 per dollar spent, according to the Direct Marketing Association. But that number has dropped 22% since 2006, and is forecast to drop even more in the coming year — suggesting that merchants must do more if they want to reverse the trend.

The webinar revealed that there’s plenty of low-hanging fruit still to be plucked. As our preview post mentioned, fewer than one in five retailers even cull bounced email addresses from their lists — suggesting that for many merchants, even very basic improvements may reap stronger performance. Winning strategies needn’t require a technology overhaul or increased staff resources to execute sophisticated personalized messages. Just three of the simple ways the webinar suggested stepping up email finesse:

Let shoppers self-segment on signup. According to industry researcher Forrester, just 6% of merchants use the email signup page to allow shoppers to self-select topics or categories of interest — and yet this method is among the simplest for boosting relevance of messaging. Rather than needing to cull behavioral data from analytics, merchants can simply ask up front for some guidance. The key is to strike a balance, labeling clearly that it’s optional for shoppers to indicate their gender, geography, favorite product categories (such as cycling or camping for an outdoor outfitter) or interest in sale items; otherwise, would-be subscribers who don’t want to share such information might be put off.

Old Navy makes tailoring email content easy by presenting subscribers a streamlined set of options on the thank you page immediately after signup. Subscribers can select what categories of apparel interest them based on gender and age, and can opt to supply their birthdays to receive a special discount. They can also navigate away from the page without taking further action.

Email segmentation example from Old Navy

Treat loyalty club members like VIPs — and let everyone else know what they’re missing. Subscribers who are members of the brand’s loyalty or free shipping club should receive targeted messages that take into account their special status. These tailored promotions are proven to earn results, with a 40% higher open rate, a 22% higher click-through rate, and 11% higher revenue per email than non-targeted email content, according to Experian.

Furthermore, messaging about the loyalty club to non-members using a “show, don’t tell” approach — displaying the potential savings and benefits to the general list — is also a winning technique, garnering a 25% lift in revenue per email than non-loyalty content, Experian found. Footwear retailer Nine West spotlights the opportunity to earn double points on shoes from a particular manufacturer, and also includes a free shipping offer and a discount to entice purchase.

Segmentation example from Nine West

Institute an abandoned cart recovery plan ASAP. As discussed in an earlier post, emails sent to shoppers who abandon their carts before completing purchases are effective and can be automated — and yet the percentage of merchants using this triggered-email program is shockingly low. Fewer than 1 in 5 of the largest merchants in the Internet Retailer 500 use abandoned cart emails, and fewer than 1 in 10 of medium-sized merchants in the Internet Retailer Second 500 do so, according to Listrak. With cart abandonment rates still hovering above 50%, recovering even a small percentage of these sales could make a huge difference to the bottom line — so it’s crucial for more merchants to institute a triggered email program as soon as possible.

For more strategies and examples, download the webinar replay. Meantime, what simple but effective email tactics have worked for you?

Webinar preview: Why email deserves a second look

With the all-important holiday season coming up fast, many merchants are planning to rely heavily on one of their old workhorses: email.  Email has a proven track record of success when it comes to driving eCommerce sales; it’s more effective than both social media and search marketing, according to data compiled by marketing services firm Monetate – converting at a rate of 4.16% per session, more than 50% higher than search and seven times the rate of social media.

But perhaps because it’s such an effective tool, many merchants don’t give it the time and attention it deserves. While , according to the Direct Marketing Association, just over half of merchants — 61% — said they planned to invest more in email programs in 2011 than they did in the prior year, according to industry researcher Forrester.

That’s bad news, because too few merchants are employing even basic best practices, according to Forrester. For example, just 17% of merchants scrub subscribers whose email addresses have bounced, and less than a third reported having a welcome message or program for new email subscribers. Just 6% of merchants offer shoppers a way to tailor email messaging to match the products and services they’re interested in.

Email information from Forrester Research

Consumers have high expectations for email performance – and are apt to unsubscribe, or, worse, mark email as spam if it doesn’t meet their needs. Lack of relevance constitutes two of the top three reasons consumers unsubscribe from email, market researcher Chadwick Martin Bailey found – with fully 56% of shoppers saying they unsubscribe if the content doesn’t meet their needs, and 51% doing so if the messages don’t match their expectations.

Luckily, merchants can come closer to meeting shoppers’ expectations for email without needing to overhaul their businesses entirely; in fact, there are small changes merchants can still implement for their holiday campaigns to help achieve even more success. By making the most of data from new touchpoints like social and mobile and nudging up relevance of messaging, merchants can achieve big gains.

Tune in to tomorrow’s Webinar to get all the details, including best practices for list acquisition as well as methods for fine-tuning relevance and spurring engagement. Meantime, what email strategies are you developing for the holiday season?

Making a (wish) list, checking it twice

As we noted in an earlier post, wish lists give browsers and researchers somewhere other than the shopping cart to stash items of potential interest. And with the holiday season right around the corner, wish lists have the potential to stimulate significant sales. Not only will gift buyers be on the lookout for suggestions from recipients, but shoppers who designate items on their wish lists may end up buying them for themselves.  In 2011, nearly six in 10 shoppers set aside holiday shopping money for themselves, according to the National Retail Federation.

Although it’s late to deploy major technology upgrades to change wishlist functionality, merchants can still make tweaks to help drive wish list usage and convert those lists to sales. Consider the following techniques:

Spotlight the wish list prominently. Go beyond including a text link to the wish list in the global header or footer and incorporate wish list prompts throughout the site: promote wish list usage on category pages, in gift guides and on product pages, where it should be listed as an option along with social links and “forward to a friend.” If you have a loyalty club, consider awarding members extra points for wish list usage, as American Eagle did last year, when it gave members 25 points for wish list creation and another 10 points for sharing the lists.

Wish list incentive from American Eagle Outfitters

Consider building a promotional campaign around wish list usage, such as last year’s “win your wish list” sweepstakes offered by jeweler Blue Nile. After Christmas, incorporate wish list messaging into post-holiday “get what you really wanted” campaigns.

Wish list example from Blue Nile

Help shoppers share everywhere. Let shoppers share and use their wish lists wherever they choose. In addition to allowing shoppers to email their wish lists to friends, add social sharing links so that lists can be posted to Facebook and Twitter; include a “print” button so shoppers can physically hand their lists over. High fashion merchant Burberry enables all the options for its wish list, with icons for Facebook, Twitter and email and a button for printing.

Wish list example from Burberry

The social sharing technology Want offers a quick wish list sharing fix. When users click a “want” button on a product page, the item is shared in their Facebook news feed; their timelines display the full list of items they’ve designated from multiple retailers, while all users’ selections are compiled on an image-driven Want site and Facebook page. The company claims that 38% of items posted to Facebook are clicked on by shoppers’ friends.

Wishlist technology Want

Smooth the transition from list to cart. If time and resources are available to work on functionality, ensure that buying items from wish lists is a simple a process. Beyond providing a link to add items to the cart, consider including in-stock information in the wish list display, and allow viewers to change the quantity or SKU options such as size or color. Toys R Us allows shoppers to buy individual items or to select multiple products to add to the cart; additionally, in-stock and delivery options are displayed, along with a free shipping and discount promotion.

Wish list example from Toys R Us

What measures are you taking to encourage wish list building and buying this holiday season?

How to smooth the cross-screen transition

Ever since mobile devices began gaining traction as a shopping tool, merchants have been preoccupied with how to serve shoppers who cross from touchpoint to touchpoint as they research, consider and buy products.

Much of that mobile optimization has focused on shoppers who move from online research to in-store purchasing, with merchants souping up store locators and, if possible, giving shoppers visibility into physical store inventory.

But new research suggests the extent to which shoppers engage in a whole other range of cross-channel behavior merchants need to address: “crossing screens” from one online touchpoint to another — and specifically from research on mobile devices to purchase completion on laptops or PCs.

revealed that 96% of smartphone users research products on their phones; 32% of those users went on to complete a purchase offline — but even more, 37%, went on to complete the purchase via a computer.

Delving further into that behavior, . One key finding: mobile is the starting point for most cross-screen shoppers, with 65% of them starting on a mobile device. More than half, 61%, move to a PC to continue their shopping journey, while 4% continue the task on a tablet.

So while most merchants consider the eCommerce Web site as the anchor of their brand’s online presence, a substantial base of consumers begin shopping via mobile first — requiring merchants to work harder to engage shoppers on mobile devices and then smooth the transition across touchpoints. To do so, merchants should:

Encourage spontaneity. The lion’s share of mobile shopping occurs on the spur of the moment as opposed to being a planned research and buying task, the study found. More surprisingly, most shopping on PCs or tablets is also spontaneous, with 58% of shoppers saying they looked on their computers for shopping-related information on the spur of the moment.

Data about spontaneous shopping from Google

Merchants should cater to this impulsive behavior by spotlighting time-sensitive offers on mobile sites, such as daily deals, best-sellers soon to be out of stock, and seasonal campaigns. To establish continuity, the promotion should carry across to the eCommerce site, so shoppers who resume their shopping journey on computers can orient themselves and are reassured that the offer is still available.

Outdoor retailer REI promoted its Labor Day sale prominently on its mobile site, encouraging shoppers to “save now” — and then echoed the look, feel and content of the display on its eCommerce site, with expanded text and further incentives to purchase, such as the “2 days left!” banner at top left.

Promotion example from REI

Promotion example from REI

Help shoppers pick up where they left off. Merchants should use all the technology they have available to enable cross-screen shoppers to resume their shopping journey with a minimum of backtracking. Consider adding functionality such as:

  • Email to a friend – and not just for products. Go beyond the capability to email links to individual product pages and allow shoppers to send themselves the contents of their shopping cart or wish list, as well as detailed product information such as warranties or spec sheets.
  • Saved searches and carts. For registered account holders who sign in, the ability to access on their laptop or PC the searches they tried using their mobile devices, along with any items they added to the cart, shortcuts what could otherwise be a frustrating process of duplication.  Amazon offers persistent cart functionality for registered shoppers, with additions to cart on the mobile site reflected on the web browser and vice versa.

Mobile example from Amazon

Shopping example from amazon

How are you smoothing the path to purchase across screens?

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